Not Larry Sabato

California Legalizes Gay Marriage

Good.  This is going to be an issue that is resolved within the next 10 years.  The era of people caring what others are doing in their private lives is coming to an end.

EMAIL FROM BYRNE CAMPAIGN

LOVE IT!!!!!

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Dear Friend,

Yesterday, the Huffington Post began to expose our opponent’s hypocrisy.  Claiming to be against the war in Iraq from the beginning, Leslie’s opponent is employed for one of the most secretive war profiteers in the world.  In fact, it was a highly-placed executive from his company who made the case for the Iraq war in the first place! Can he really claim to be against the war if he was lining his own pockets with the profits? 

This just underscores the real choice we have in this election. 

CONTRIBUTE HERE

Just three weeks from now, on June 10th, we have the chance to elect a true progressive.  Leslie Byrne has always stood by her constituents.  She opposed the Iraq war from the outset, sponsored such legislation as the Family and Medical Leave Act in Congress, and has always protected a woman’s right to choose. 

With your contribution of $35, $75, $150 or $250 today, we can send a clear signal that we want a progressive Democrat to go to Congress and not someone whose concern for war profiteering is determined by his run for office.  Can you help today?

We have been working hard to take our message of progressive change to voters across Northern Virginia and the response has been overwhelming.  But with election day around the corner, we have many more people to reach and need to continue our aggressive voter contact efforts. 

This week, your contribution of:
$35 will pay for literature handouts in one precinct;
$75 will feed our fabulous volunteers;
$150 will keep our volunteer phone banks dialing for three nights;
and $250 will send direct mail to 450 primary voters.
Almost 2,300 contributors have invested in Leslie’s campaign for progressive change.

Please click here to make your secure online contribution of $35, $75, $150, $250 -  or whatever you can give - and join the Byrne Brigade today!


Sincerely,

Joe Fox
Campaign Manager, Byrne for Congress


P.S. – Please don’t delay in making your contribution.  We need to put Leslie, a true progressive, in Congress!

"Ayatollah Cuccinelli" vs. Frank Wolf

Farewell Frank covers it here.

First Ken Cuccinelli endorses Frank Wolf in the upcoming primary.  Then he sends out the wrong date for the primary.  With "support" like that...

Then as Bearing Drift notices, Ken shifts to the 10th District convention and endorses non-Wolf supported candidates for the State Central Committee.

Remember when a constituent of Ken's whose daughter was killed at Virginia Tech was testifying before his committee on the gun show loophole and Ken walked out?  That was a chicken-shit move.  So was this email- supporting Wolf while trying to undermine him at the same time.

Remember When Gerry Hung Up on Kaine

You should.

(Gerry Sucks, Part 59).

TOM DAVIS USES RACIAL SLUR IN OBAMA ARTICLE

"Tar Baby"?!?!  The Politico just broke the news.

Gerry Sucks, Part 58

Lowell covers the national blogs finally figuring out that Gerry Connolly is a "Zell Miller/Joe Lieberman" kind of Democrat.

GERRY'S CASUAL ENCOUNTER ON CRAIGSLIST

RedVirginia has the scoop.  This ad is currently competing against other ads in Northern Virginia, such as

"Exotic Hot Wife Needs Fantasy Fulfilled",

"Any Cougars Out There?",

"Kitty, Kitty, Lick, Lick",

and "Connolly Staffers Need a Job June 11th".

(Gerry Sucks, Part 57)

The Difference Between Caucuses and Primaries

I've said before- the problem with caucuses is many people have a tough time showing up at one certain time to vote- turnout is always higher when the polls are open all day and they can choose a time to vote that is best for them.

Earlier this year, Hillary Clinton won Texas by a 100,000 vote margin in the primary.  However, those who voted in the primary were allowed to return to the polls at 7 p.m. and cast a vote in the Democratic Caucus. Barack Obama supporters showed back up in mass, and Obama won the caucus, and a majority of the Delegates.  So if you were motivated enough to show up twice in one day, you got counted twice- a new concept in Presidential politics.

Tonight we got another example of how much caucuses skew results:  earlier in the year Obama won the Nebraska caucuses by over a 2-1 margin (26,126-12,445).  Tonight when they had a non binding primary in Nebraska the results were way different as Obama barely won 45,805-43,185.  That's a 34 point margin turned into a 2 point margin based on method of nomination.

Before Hillary gets out, I hope she can force some media attention on this.  We have solid evidence through Nebraska and Texas that primary results are far different from caucus results in the same state.  In both cases, turnout was far higher in the primaries.

So if we know that the caucus results are inflating Obama's real support- and when a primary is held with higher turnout Hillary is doing better- why are we counting caucuses towards the popular vote as if they were equal in voter participation to primaries?

MOUNTAIN MOMMA WINS AGAIN

4:23 p.m. Projection:  Hillary Clinton wins West Virginia.

NOMINATION CONTESTS ARE NEVER OVER WHEN STATES ARE REFUSING TO BACK THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE.

Gerry Sucks, Part 56

Who can forget the mailer calling Charlie Hall a Republican in the 2007 Democratic Primary?  What have we learned since then?

Gerry was quietly trying to undermine Chap Petersen against Jeannemarie Devolites Davis.

Many of Tom Davis' top donors are supporting Gerry---  and Tom even walked Gerry around Capitol Hill.

But back to the "Linda Smyth" mailer calling Charlie a Republican...

Linda Smyth used to head "Republicans for Connolly" in 1999.

Who would be bold enough to pay for a mailer calling one candidate a Republican, when the opponent headed up their Republican organization a few years ago?  Arrogant enough to demand that his advise be included as an in-kind contribution?

VPAP can answer that.

Thanks for the Shout Out RTD!

In this morning's paper.

Delegate Abuser Fees SPEAKS

From the WaPo:

"Del. David B. Albo, a Fairfax Republican involved in transportation negotiations, said Kaine's plan had a "0.000 percent chance" of winning approval."

This is how Tim Kaine stays so popular.  All the voters see is the idiots in the General Assembly attacking him, and assume he must be doing a good job.  I mean if Delegate Abuser Fees doesn't like the bill....

Governor Regressive Tax

The biggest difference between Governor Mark Warner and Governor Tim Kaine is on taxation issues.

First of all, Mark Warner vetoed the repeal of the estate tax, Virginia's most progressive tax.  Tim Kaine campaigned on repealing it, and then signed the repeal into law.  Now he is whining about revenue shortfalls in transportation.  Um...

One of the key aspects of the original Warner tax plan in 2004 (and he admits that not enough of his plan was passed) was the tax REFORM aspect of it, instead of just the increased revenues.  Besides keeping the estate tax, Warner's plan focused on creating a new income tax bracket for Virginia's most wealthy- while giving a tax cut to 2/3 of Virginia families.

So the Republicans gave Warner his revenue but not his tax reform.  Sad.

But what the heck is Tim Kaine doing making the situation so much worse?   His solution in the upcoming transportation session is a sales tax increase- the most regressive tax possible.  This is to make up for revenue we lost when he signed the repeal of the estate tax- the most progressive tax.

For a former missionary it is especially shocking that Kaine may leave office with one of the most pathetic legacies in recent Virginia history for the working poor.

WHO'S YOUR DADDY?

Gosh, this makes me feel bad for Gerry's daughter...

Apparently she was in the Woodson school play this weekend.  As with any school play there was a program where parents put in ads congratulating their kids.  Every single ad in the program had either family pictures or just pictures of the kids.

Except for parent Gerry Connolly who bought the back cover and put a picture of himself instead of his child- and didn't even pay for the ad himself like every other parent- he had his Congressional campaign pay for it.  See it here.

I've been out most of the weekend, but I have been totally overwhelmed with email from other parents and students about this.  Rather than angry, most of them are just sad that Gerry doesn't even have the grace and common sense to give his daughter the attention in her school program.  I feel bad for her also.  Looking at all the other parents congratulating their kids, followed by her dad putting in a picture of himself had to be totally embarrassing.

(Gerry Sucks, Part 55)

Congressional Candidate Mails Naked Pictures of Kids!?

Click here to see the shocker (I used blue to bleep this out).

This is totally unacceptable.  I don't care if these kids are in a foreign country or not.

By the way, since Gerry Connolly is highlighting his trips to 76 countries while he worked for the Foreign Relations Committee- does he want to disclose how many of those trips were paid for by lobbyists?  Why is no reporter asking?

(Part 54)

Scenario Watch: Obama Picks Webb for VP

This is the first of a three part series- with both Jim Webb and Tim Kaine being rumored for Vice President to Barack Obama- we will take a look at both potential selections- and then analyze which candidate would be better for Obama nationwide and in Virginia (which may not be the same).

-----------------------------------------------------------
There are a lot of things Jim Webb would add to a national Democratic ticket- which I don't need to go over here.  But if he was selected- how would that impact Virginia politics?

First of all, Webb's term doesn't end until 2012, so his seat would only become vacant if he was selected and then the Obama/Webb ticket was elected.

The next step would fall to Governor Tim Kaine.  He would get to appoint the replacement- until the next General Election.  Because we have elections every year this would put the special election for U.S. Senate on the ballot with Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General in November, 2009.

Kaine's appointment would almost certainly be a candidate for the three year term in November 2009- and it is hard to imagine anyone unseating them in a Democratic Convention that year (Primaries can't be held for Special Elections).   So who might Kaine appoint?

The appointment would be given to Chuck Robb if he asked for it as he is both a former Governor and Senator.  I'm not sure Chuck would be interested, so let's explore the other options.

The best theory out there is Kaine would put an end to the Brian Moran-Creigh Deeds showdown for Governor by appointing one of them to be Senator.  This could work for party unity- but who would be appointed?  In my opinion it would have to be Brian Moran to the Senate.  The reason being that in federal elections Northern Virginia makes up a greater percentage of the statewide vote.  To put Creigh in a federal cycle that places more importance on the urban crescent of Virginia would be a disaster for the party.  Even if Creigh was able to survive 2009, he would almost certainly lose the seat in 2012 to any decent GOP candidate.

Another option for Kaine is allowing Moran and Deeds to keep running for Governor and appoint someone else.  Former Lt. Governor Don Beyer would likely be strongly considered.  Don's biggest problem right now is his statewide name ID has dramatically decreased in the 11 years since he was last on the ballot.  Couple that with the tremendous growth in Northern Virginia since then, and Don probably would be no better positioned than an unknown candidate among many voters.  To put the time in context- Don was Lt. Governor to Governor George Allen.

Former Congressman L.F. Payne would also be out there.  L.F. ran much better than the other Democrats on the 1997 ticket and is now very successful in the private sector.  He would likely also have name ID problems, even worse than Beyer, but L.F.'s style of not offending anyone might be very good in the U.S. Senate.

While Don would lead among those in the party's past, there are other options.  DPVA Chair Dickie Cranwell would probably want consideration.  Former Delegate Viola Baskerville and Former Fairfax Chairwoman Kate Hanley are both in the Kaine cabinet and might be considered also.  Of these three Hanley is probably the most electable in a special election,  but she hasn't run since 1999 and hasn't had GOP opposition since 1995- meaning she has the same name ID issues as Beyer, making it hard to imagine her cutting in front of Beyer unless Beyer is getting a national position in the Obama cabinet.

Other options could be appointing an insurgent from the General Assembly.  State Senators Chap Petersen, Donald McEachin, John Edwards, and Ralph Northam as well as State Delegates Jennifer McClellan, Joe Bouchard and Steve Shannon jump to mind.  However, they all have some obvious weaknesses, starting with name ID.  McEachin and Petersen would jump to the top of this list because of the strong support they would have from Webb for their early support of him in 2006, but both have lost statewide campaigns before.  Shannon would likely have problems inside the party for some of his votes, Northam and Bouchard both have military backgrounds, but not a lot of style points, and McClellan would be a very divisive choice given her intra-party activity, especially for Harris Miller.  Edwards is an interesting choice as someone very popular in the party and his shared name with the former Presidential candidate wouldn't hurt either, but his gun show loophole vote would haunt him.

Local options could include Norfolk Mayor Paul Fraim, Fairfax Chairman Gerry Connolly or Former Alexandria Mayor Kerry Donley.  All would obviously start with almost no name ID outside their home regions.  Fraim could be a very interesting choice with the election overlapping with the Governor's race as his Hampton Roads connection could blunt Bob McDonnell's advantage there across the ballot.  Donley is a long shot as he has become very irrelevant in recent years, and his support of Harris Miller makes him still somewhat politically toxic.   Connolly would be fresh off his defeat in the 11th District primary, and would also likely be far too toxic to be selected.

Never elected options for Kaine might include Larry Roberts, Jim Dyke, Aneesh Chopra, Bob Blue, Sheila Johnson, John Marshall, Jim Ukrop, Stuart Seigel, and Jody Wagner.  Ukrop and Seigel are both large donors and very close to Kaine's Richmond organization- but neither strikes me as a politician in waiting.  Blue is closer with Warner than Kaine, but is well respected around Richmond.  I'm not sure if Dyke is close enough with Kaine to be considered, but as an African American from Northern Virginia who has been both Virginia Secretary of Education and Chairman of the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce, Dyke is always a potential powerhouse.  Chopra is a nice guy, but a little politically tone deaf to get this appointment.  Wagner is Secretary of Finance for Kaine, and lost a close Congressional race in the 2nd District in 2000, but I'm sure she is politically savvy enough to be picked.  Roberts is the opposite of Wagner- as the Governor's closest ally he is very politically savvy, but his closeness to Kaine and lack of ever seeking office could look too much like crony-ism.

Finally, we can't forget the 2009 Congressional Delegation of Jim Moran, Rick Boucher, Leslie Byrne and Bobby Scott.  Moran is out of the question because of his brother running for Governor on the same ballot and Byrne is also out of the question as she will just be restarting in the House.  If Boucher or Scott wanted to turn in their House seniority to take a shot at the Senate this might be their chance, and either one could be a very strong candidate.

The Republican field of consideration for the November, 2009 special election would be much smaller because they would have to win a convention rather than be appointed, so only those with an existing political base would be possible.

Deserving of the first mention is Lt. Governor Bill Bolling.   Elected statewide, Bill earned a lot of respect in GOP circles for stepping back from his showdown with McDonnell for Governor.  If this opportunity came up, many party activists would look to Bolling to run for Senate instead of re-election.

Congressman Eric Cantor and Randy Forbes would also get some buzz going.  Forbes is a former state party chair, and has some statewide knowledge.  Eric is probably the best member of the Congressional delegation to run as an outsider against the appointed Democratic Senator, but he would likely only consider this if he saw his efforts to move up in the House GOP leadership thwarted. 

General Assembly members who might consider a run would include Senator Mark Obenshain, Ayatollah Ken Cuccinelli and Delegates Chris Saxman, Jeff Frederick and Bob Marshall.   Cuccinelli would have to drop out of the AG race, but running against an appointed Democratic Senator is right up his alley.  Saxman would have to give up his seat in the House of Delegates to run, but like Cuccinelli he would likely love a race against an appointed Democrat.  Obenshain still has a very influential name in GOP politics, but would have a long way to go to win a quick nomination fight.  Frederick and Marshall would have some existing support from their unsuccessful campaigns this year, which could give them a leg up over the average GA member.

Former Attorney Generals Mark Earley and Jerry Kilgore who lost races for Governor could both see this as a chance to return to the public eye, although both of them seem done with politics for now.

Former Governor Jim Gilmore could also make a strong case for the nomination.  If 4,000,000 Virginians vote this November, it will take an 80,000 vote margin for Mark Warner to win 51-49.  That's close to his margin in his race for Governor.  If Warner wins by 160,000 votes it will be a 52-48 race and that margin would be a record.  It would take a 400,000 vote margin for Mark to win by more than 55-45 points, which is very unlikely and would give Gilmore a good talking point that he exceeded expectations the year before by keeping his loss in the single digits.  Gilmore's problem would be Bob McDonnell is unlikely to want to share the ballot with him.

Finally, don't forget George Allen who held this seat until 2006.  Republicans are missing one key part of their 2009 "dream" ticket, which is an open racist, an important part of the GOP base.   Allen would be perfect to fill that role for Republicans.

One Candidate Has Been Endorsed by Jim Webb